After sliding for months, Canoo (NASDAQ:GOEV) stock experienced a brief spike in recent days after this early-stage electric vehicle company reported yet another big vehicle order.
But before you dive in on the expectation that the situation for this fledgling EV maker will continue to get better, take a minute. Keep in mind that while the company’s situation could continue to improve, that may not translate into big gains for the stock.
As the market absorbs this latest development, the key issue with Canoo’s shareholder dilution will come back into focus. As I argued in my last article on the stock, the prospect of severe shareholder dilution stands to have a severe impact on the stock’s long-term upside potential.
Not only that, there’s something else that could also affect possible upside with this more under-the-radar vehicle electrification play.
GOEV Stock and the Latest Vehicle Order News
In recent months, Canoo has been on a hot streak in terms of locking down big vehicle orders. The latest such deal was anounced Oct. 16. It was a binding order for 9,300 Canoo electric vehicles (with the option to double the order) from van rental company Kingbee.
Focused on providing unfitted, work-ready vehicles to small and medium-sized businesses, it’s easy to see why Canoo’s vehicles are a perfect fit for Kingbee’s fleet. After all, they can be modified far more easily than comparable vehicles.
GOEV stock jumped nearly 25% higher on the news but over the next few days gave back all but 5% of those gains.
With the market moving on after this positive news, chances are concerns about forthcoming shareholder dilution will again become top of mind. To fulfill this new order, not to mention orders from Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) and from fleet leasing company Zeeba, Canoo is raising hundreds of millions via the sale of new shares.
Profitability Remains Many Years Away
Based on Canoo’s recent spate of vehicle orders, after a slow start, the company may be on track to scale into a business generating billions in annual revenue within a few years. With this in mind, you may be thinking I’m making a big deal about looming shareholder dilution with GOEV stock.
After all, if it can use this cash to “level up,” won’t the resultant value creation make up for slicing the pie into many more slices? In theory, this could happen, but take a look at long-term earnings forecasts for this company. Sell-side consensus states it will continue to report negative earnings over the next few years.
Given that present profitability is becoming more important than future earnings potential, this stock could continue to struggle over the next few years. After all, improvements to Canoo’s bottom line remain a work in progress.
If Canoo does manage to become profitable far sooner than expected, this may not translate into significantly higher prices for GOEV shares. Forthcoming and future dilution could limit how profitable this company ultimately is on a per-share basis. A material move above current prices could prove to be easier said than done.
The Takeaway With GOEV Stock
Based on the limited boost Canoo has received from its latest vehicle order news, perhaps the market shares my less optimistic view of GOEV. This EV maker may be doing a great job finding demand for its vehicles in the commercial market.
After generating essentially zero sales, it may be on the verge of becoming a billion-dollar business.
Nevertheless, even as a moonshot, there’s little appeal with this stock. There’s too much uncertainty when it comes to upside, due to the likely impact of shareholder dilution.
Canoo is also many years away from possibly becoming profitable. The long wait for it to potentially experience a “liftoff moment” also dampens its appeal.
Considering its two major negatives, don’t fear “missing out” by skipping out on GOEV stock. More likely than not, all you are missing out on is underwhelming returns.
GOEV stock earns a D rating in Portfolio Grader.
On the date of publication, neither Louis Navellier nor the InvestorPlace Research Staff member primarily responsible for this article held (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.
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